Where the data comes from

Price guides are captured from public listing pages on the major Australian property portals while a home is on the market. Each capture is stored with the page it came from, when it was taken, and a checksum, so every guide can be traced back to its source.

Sale prices come from NSW government property sales records and from sold results published on the same portals.

Matching guides to results

A listing is matched to a sale when both refer to the same property and the sale follows the listing. The guide used is the one advertised on the matched listing. Listings without a numeric guide (“Contact agent”, “Auction” with no range) can’t be measured and are left out. So are sales we can’t confidently link to a listing.

A sale with a published guide (the count shown next to every figure) is a sale that passed this matching.

Reports confirmed to describe the same sale are counted once. Records with unresolved property, date, price or guide conflicts are left out until the source evidence can be reconciled. The original records are retained so these decisions can be reviewed.

Guide gap

How far the sale price landed from the advertised guide:

guide gap = (sale price − guide midpoint) ÷ guide midpoint

For a range guide such as $1.5M–$1.65M, the midpoint is $1.575M. A single-figure guide is its own midpoint. So a home guided at $1.5M–$1.65M that sold for $1.81M has a gap of +14.9%.

Where the original guide range has not been retained, the results table shows the stored value labelled Guide midpoint. The gap uses this midpoint; it does not reconstruct the original range.

Above guide: sold for more than the guide midpoint.
Below guide: sold for less.
At guide: within half a percent either way.

Suburb figures use the median gap, so one unusual sale can’t move them far. Agent figures use the average gap across their sales.

Typical miss

The guide gap has a direction, so a +10% result and a −10% result would average out to zero. The typical miss ignores direction: it is the average size of the gap, whichever way it went. A lower typical miss means results landed closer to the guide.

Agent rankings order agents by typical miss, smallest first.

Minimum samples

Small samples produce noisy numbers, so figures only appear once there is enough evidence behind them:

Suburb figures are ranked and listed in search once a suburb has at least 10 sales with a published guide in the last 12 months.
Agents are ranked once they have at least 8 sales with a published guide in the last two years.
On monthly charts, months with fewer than 5 sales are drawn as hollow points. They swing more and deserve less weight.

Pages below these thresholds still show their numbers, labelled as limited data.

Forecasts

Where a forecast appears, it describes a comparable-home index: the expected change in price for a basket of similar homes, weighted by reporting quality. It isn’t the change in the median sale price, which moves with the mix of homes that happen to sell. And it isn’t a valuation of any single property. Forecasts are only published for areas where the model has enough history to be tested, and always with a range.

What the figures don’t say

A result above guide can come from a guide set low, or from strong competition on the day, or from the market moving between listing and sale. These figures measure the outcome. They don’t establish why it happened, and nothing on this site is a claim about any agent’s intent or conduct.

Corrections and right of reply

If a sale is attributed to the wrong agent, matched to the wrong listing, or recorded at the wrong price, we want to fix it. Corrections are checked against the source records and applied at the next data refresh.

A dedicated corrections contact is being set up and will be listed here.

Agents will also be able to claim their profile to add context to their figures. See the agent leaderboard.